with Martin Gassebner
What drives terror? What are the causes of international terrorism? The
events of 9/11 generated a surge
of academic research trying to answer such questions, yet the main lessons
remain elusive. Despite extensive
investigation of the relative roles of economic conditions (GDP levels
and rates, poverty), political rights and
democracy (linear and non-linear effects) and interstate violent conflicts,
the existing empirical estimates
still diverge in size, statistical significance and even sign. This paper
introduces the Escalation Hypothesis,
a rationale for international terror that has received almost no attention
in this empirical literature. We argue that
domestic political instability is a main reason for international terrorism
because domestic instability provides
the skills – military, tactical, and organizational – required to carry
out international terrorist acts.
For presentation at the 17th Annual Silvaplana Workshop in Political
Economy, July 2008
(Silvaplana is actually within walking distance from St. Moritz, Switzerland)